Third and fourth wave outcomes expected

Issue 4 2021 Security Services & Risk Management

If we take Israel as the model, where most of the population was inoculated; in July 2021 they are beginning the third jab because of rising infections (50% of which are from people that have had two jabs already).

This means that the vaccine may lose a bit of its potency over time (seven months) and/or the variants are getting stronger.The assumption is therefore that the entire world will need to be inoculated a few times before any thought of herd immunity could be discussed.

It is the health community that conceive the protocols for a biological threat, but it is the security industry that implements the protocols on the ground and does more because there is crime related to the threat – people could become aggressive.

Infection testing is done by using chemistry or electronic/technology of sorts, which the security industry has invested millions of dollars into in temperature or fever detection technology. The security industry manages the social movement of people, besides ensuring people comply with the hygiene protocols.

The health community must realise that the security practitioners are the ones that could handle aggressive and disorderly behaviour besides violent incidents that could be crowd related. This dictates that it is the security industry that must layer its manpower by character traits and specific skill sets.

Know the current situation

1. The Delta variant has 1000 times the viral load than the initial Covid strain and is twice as infectious. This means that when people spray droplets when shouting during aggressive behaviour they could infect others easily – 93 countries are now impacted.

2. The Lambda variant is still a virus of interest until more is known, but has impacted 30 countries, mostly in South America. We note that Uruguay and Chili have reported increased deaths from Mucormycosis.

3. When 50% of new infections are from people that have been inoculated with two jabs, this means that less people may be hospitalised, but will need home care and could rely on oxygen.

4. There could be corruption taking place where a security officer receives a bribe and lets people refill oxygen bottles at a hospital, plant or anywhere else without knowing that the fungus (Mucormycosis) could be in the pipes or valves of the bottles. The same applies to assisted breathing equipment that may be required such as ventilators or humidifiers that are resold by second-hand shops.

6. Because of the economic meltdown there will be more unemployed people that could break their moral code when they need to service their basic needs such as food, medicines, oxygen, assisted breathing equipment and obviously, there is now alcohol and drugs that addicts need to get their hands on. Besides manufacturing sites, warehousing, transportation and retail outlets could be compromised by mob attacks or corruption. Also, this is where organised crime and gang crime will become more active taking advantage of the situation and the people involved.

7. Intelligent customers will avoid going to a site that is not managed well. They will see the professionalism displayed when the people on the ground are working professionally with protocols.

8. The security industry protocols for an active biological threat must focus on the fact that this is not a one-size-fits-all situation. There are distinct protocols for quarantine centres, hotels and old-age homes which are different to shopping centres and outdoor arenas.

Summary

The health department must issue a notice to the public that they must purchase oxygen from authorised dealers. Oxygen bottles, especially refilling old oxygen bottles, tubes and/or valves could contain black fungus meaning that a person may contract Mucormycosis. This also applies to any assisted breathing apparatus such as humidifiers or ventilators.

The private security industry (PSI) must be recognised as front liners and seriously supported because they are doing the job on the ground. Because of the behaviour of people, they are soft targets for transmission of viruses and therefore need to be kitted out appropriately. The SPI should be given VAT-free privileges for PPE equipment, or the health department should provide the PSI free PPE equipment as it does for other front liners.

Authored by Juan Kirsten for the International Security Industry Organisation (ISIO) in collaboration with the Central Association of Private Security Industry (CAPSI). ISIO and CAPSI represent over 7 million security practitioners.




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