Novaira Insights, the market research firm covering video surveillance, has released its 2026 edition of The World Market for Video Surveillance Hardware and Software, highlighting a stronger global growth profile in 2025, tentative improvements in China’s market outlook, and unprecedented price increases forecast for 2026 as AI demand squeezes critical components.
2025: Growth accelerates, led by the Americas
The new report shows the global video surveillance equipment market grew 3,0% in 2025, an acceleration versus 2024’s near-flat performance. This growth was characterised by a decline in the Chinese market, while the rest of the world (excluding China) saw a 7,4% growth. The markets in the USA and Canada grew 9,8% combined, reflecting robust demand for higher-value network cameras, software, and cloud-connected solutions.
China: Less steep decline, modest recovery ahead
China’s professional video surveillance market declined for the fourth year running in 2025, contracting by 4,0% as large government-funded projects remained well below historic peaks. However, the decline was slightly less severe than previously forecast, and Novaira now expects revenue growth to return in 2026, driven by funding reallocations and higher average selling prices.
China still accounts for about 36% of global video surveillance revenues and retains the world’s largest installed base, but new deployment projects are increasingly being replaced by upgrade and replacement cycles. That structural shift will limit China’s ability to regain the double-digit growth rates seen earlier in the decade, even as pricing supports a modest revenue rebound.
World excluding China growth boost.
Growth accelerated across several major markets including Western Europe, North America, and Eastern Europe, outperforming expectations despite emerging structural challenges.
2026: Unprecedented price increases
2026 revenue growth is expected to be driven more by price increases than by rapid volume expansion.
According to Novaira Insights lead analyst Josh Woodhouse, “Surging demand for AI data centres and the required high-bandwidth memory has triggered global shortages and price increases. By late 2025, the video surveillance manufacturing sector started to feel the impact. This has set the stage for an unusual 2026, where price rather than volume may be the larger driver of revenue growth in some markets.”
Surging demand for DRAM, NAND flash, and enterprise-grade HDDs has created a significant supply-side shock for 2026. Lead times have stretched from the usual 4–6 weeks to 12–52 weeks, while HDD costs have risen sharply as hyperscale AI buyers compete for the same high-capacity drives used in NVRs and surveillance-optimised systems.
The greatest disruption is expected through 2026 and 2027, as AI-driven demand lengthens lead times and sharply increases component costs. Vendors have responded by passing these higher costs on to customers through multiple product-line price increases.
Although higher prices may support top-line revenue performance, they are also likely to dampen demand, particularly in cost-sensitive segments and emerging markets. Nevertheless, the global market is forecast to grow 8,2% in 2026, making it worth $28 billion in that year.
Novaira Insights points to three practical implications of the disruption for the video surveillance market for integrators and end users:
• Expect longer lead times and tighter allocation on NVRs, high-capacity storage and AI-appliance hardware.
• Plan for higher per-device pricing and potential specification trade-offs as component costs peak in 2026–2027.
• Expect customers to scrutinise total cost of ownership more closely, comparing cloud and on-premises architectures and lower-cost camera form factors as they seek to maintain camera counts within fixed budgets.
Novaira Insights' 2026 report provides valuable insights into the market dynamics, including detailed forecasts, market share estimates, and analysis of key trends impacting the industry. The report is an essential resource for stakeholders looking to navigate the complexities of the video surveillance market.
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