Tech trends that won’t happen in 2022

Issue 1 2022 News & Events

As 2022 kicks off, predictions abound on the technology advancements and innovations expected in the year ahead. However, several highly anticipated advancements, including the metaverse, mainstream companion robots, a boom in edge computing and a bounce back in new vehicle sales will not happen in 2022, states global technology intelligence firm ABI Research.

In its new whitepaper, '70 Technology Trends That Will — and Will Not — Shape 2022', ABI Research analysts identify 35 trends that will shape the technology market and 35 others that, although attracting huge amounts of speculation and commentary, are less likely to move the needle over the next 12 months.

“The fallout from Covid-19 prevention measures, the process of transitioning from pandemic to endemic disease and global political tensions weigh heavily on the coming year’s fortunes. This whitepaper is a tool for our readers to help shape their understanding of the key critical trends that look set to materialise in 2022 as the world begins to emerge from the shadow of Covid-19. It also highlights those much-vaunted trends that are less likely to have meaningful impact in 2022,” says Stuart Carlaw, chief research officer at ABI Research.

What won’t happen in 2022?

The metaverse will not arrive fully formed: Despite all the headlines and investments, the metaverse will not arrive in 2022 or, for that matter, within the typical five-year forecast window. The metaverse is still more of a buzzword and vision than a fully-fledged end goal with a defined arrival date. What we have today is a number of tech companies building their version of a 'metaverse', but this multiverse is not fully interconnected, does not yet widely employ open standards and certainly has not fully embraced Extended Reality (XR) — all tenets of the metaverse vision (some would also add the crypto economy to the list, which is also not in place).

The exponential boom in edge computing will not come to fruition: Edge computing, both Mobile-Access Edge Computing (MEC) and general edge computing, will continue to increase in deployment numbers. However, the deployments in 2022 will be mostly critical ones made by early adopters — not the start of the boom that had been anticipated. Edge computing use cases and financial viability are tightly coupled to 5G cellular networks, both public and private. The availability of affordable 5G services on which edge computing will thrive is not yet a global reality. As a result, edge computing adoption will be slower than anticipated.

Companion robotics will not go mainstream: After several years of leading social robotics companies either shutting up shop or withdrawing their commercial offerings, 2021 saw renewed investment and focus on the market and its potential. Amazon’s launch of its first social robot, the Astro, certainly sparked a great deal of attention. However, despite the enormous potential for social/companion robotics, 2022 will not be the breakout year the industry is hoping for, despite the scale, pricing and awareness that a player like Amazon can bring to an emerging technology market.

New vehicle sales will not bounce back: The automotive supply chain remains unable to meet pent-up demand, thanks to the shortage of critical semiconductors. A reliance on outdated semiconductor process technologies with limited production capacity, proprietary designs and an opaque demand-signalling process has prolonged the semiconductor crisis in the automotive sector. There are no quick fixes for problems that have been years in the making. Therefore, the consequences of the decision made by automakers in 2020 to cancel their existing semiconductor orders will last beyond 2022. Ultimately, ABI Research does not expect new vehicle sales to return to the 90 million mark (last seen in 2018), until 2023 at the earliest.

No relief from semiconductor shortage: A combination of factors will take until 2023 to resolve shortage issues through additional capacity, verification of real demand (versus panic 2X to 3X orders) and the inflationary impact on consumer spending on products. Continued risk factors include social/political risks and the ability to bring new fab capacity online, on time, especially for tight engineering specified automotive and commercial vehicles. Covid-19 variants and the impact on nations without high vaccination rates also play a role in permitting staffing of facilities and transportation of finished goods and semiconductor supplies.

For more trends that won’t happen in 2022 and the 35 trends that will, download the whitepaper, 70 Technology Trends That Will — and Will Not — Shape 2022 at the short link www.securitysa.com/*abi1




Share this article:
Share via emailShare via LinkedInPrint this page



Further reading:

Pentagon appointed as Milestone distributor
Elvey Security Technologies News & Events Surveillance
Milestone Systems appointed Pentagon Distribution (an Elvey Group company within the Hudaco Group of Companies) as a distributor. XProtect’s open architecture means no lock-in and the ability to customise the connected video solution that will accomplish the job.

Read more...
SMART Estate Security returns to KZN
Nemtek Electric Fencing Products Technews Publishing Axis Communications SA OneSpace Editor's Choice News & Events Integrated Solutions IoT & Automation
The second SMART Estate Security Conference of 2024 was held in May in KwaZulu-Natal at the Mount Edgecombe Estate Conference Centre, which is located on the Estate’s pristine golf course.

Read more...
From the editor's desk: Just gooi a cable
Technews Publishing News & Events
      Welcome to the 2024 edition of the SMART Estate Security Handbook. We focus on a host of topics, and this year’s issue also has a larger-than-normal Product Showcase section. Perhaps the vendors are ...

Read more...
Secutel wins OSPA Award for Outstanding New Security Product
Secutel Technologies News & Events Access Control & Identity Management
[Sponsored] Secutel Technologies’ NoKey Access Control solution won the Outstanding New Security Product category at the 2024 OSPAs in South Africa. The awards were presented at Securex 2024 where all category finalists were recognised for their contribution to the security industry.

Read more...
ONVIF launches new working groups for cloud, metadata and audio
News & Events Surveillance
ONVIF, the global standardisation initiative for IP-based physical security products, is announcing the formation of three new working groups to tackle standardisation work in cloud connectivity, audio, and advanced metadata.

Read more...
Inaugural Gallagher Security Johannesburg networking roadshow
Gallagher News & Events
Held at Johannesburg’s Foghound Coffee Company in Midrand from 11 to 12 June, security industry professionals gather at the inaugural Gallagher Security Johannesburg Networking Roadshow.

Read more...
Trend Micro launches first security solutions for consumer AI PCs
Information Security News & Events
Trend Micro unveiled its first consumer security solutions tailored to safeguard against emerging threats in the era of AI PCs. Trend will bring these advanced capabilities to consumers in late 2024.

Read more...
Dallmeier receives ISO 27001 certification
Dallmeier Electronic Southern Africa Surveillance News & Events
Dallmeier has received ISO 27001 certification for its Information Security Management System (ISMS). The international standard for information security management ensures that companies meet the highest standards of data protection and data security.

Read more...
Local manufacturing is still on the rise
Hissco Editor's Choice News & Events Security Services & Risk Management
HISSCO International, Africa's largest manufacturer of security X-ray products, has recently secured a multi-continental contract to supply over 55 baggage X-ray screening systems in 10 countries.

Read more...
SAIDSA achieves ISO 9001 certification
SAIDSA(SA Intruder Detection Services Association) Associations News & Events Training & Education
The South African Intruder Detection Services Association (SAIDSA) has announced that it has achieved ISO 9001:2015 certification. This milestone reflects its commitment to quality management and excellence in the security services industry.

Read more...