The country is likely on the precipice of another self-induced energy crisis, but no one is talking about it openly, either because they are unaware of it or because they were only here for a quick buck and plan to be far away when the bubble bursts. In short, we may be in the early stages of a silent crisis, with rooftop solar and battery backup systems failing.
The billions spent on renewable and backup energy during the mad rush to escape Eskom’s inability to keep the lights on may well be under threat due to suboptimal components, inadequately trained installation crews, incorrect configurations of inverters and batteries, and a dearth of local, long-term warranty and maintenance strategies. This situation is far more common than one would expect, all in an effort to keep up with the high demand.
By July 2024, rooftop solar capacity reached 5,791 MW. In 2024, the market size was estimated at 2,12 GW. The solar and battery industry boomed.
However, what also boomed was the proliferation of every Tom, Dick, and Harry opening up a solar or battery supply business, and the subsequent emergence of suboptimal batteries and inverters. Coinciding with a global dip in lithium prices, containers were being imported from China and sold at a lower price than the cost of many of the proven brands. Of course, bringing in a container of batteries comes without support and engineering expertise, but, in the name of moving volume, it appears that the can was happily kicked down the road.
It may be cynical, but it is not hard to imagine this being an easy risk to take when the entire rationale behind a business is to capitalise on the bubble and then move on to the next big thing. Unfortunately, the people who will ultimately pay the price are the end customers when components start to fail.
Let us not assume that every installation of a reputable supplier was done by the best expertise. Remember, the demand was through the roof. However, reputable suppliers have the necessary footprint and expertise to rectify the situation, as it is in everyone’s best interest to do so.
In an environment where demand was unprecedented, even distribution companies began taking on the import and distribution of components, without any prior experience, infrastructure, or long-term vision beyond moving as many units as possible. It is the end user that pays the ultimate price, especially when the whole gravy train derails and product lines are discontinued. Then, many distributors of FMCG products viewed solar components as just another FMCG product and bought, sold, and moved on.
A can of beans is sold, opened, consumed and disposed of. A battery, unfortunately, is not.
This has all led to an unsustainable situation where we are on the precipice of another energy crisis. How can we be so sure these components may fail? Well, we just need to look at North America.
Cesar Barbosa is a prominent figure in the US solar industry, known for his expertise in solar decommissioning, repurposing, and recycling. He is the founder and president of NuLife Power Services, a nationally recognised company based in Livermore, California, specialising in the repowering, removal, reinstallation, and decommissioning of ageing solar photovoltaic (PV) systems across the region. He says the US is in a renewables crisis.
He says that on those shores, a significant portion of commercial solar systems installed before 2016 are expected to be underperforming or non-operational by 2030. This highlights a looming crisis in the solar industry. He calls it a ‘silent crisis’ of failing rooftop solar systems across America. He attributes this to widespread system failures.
He says that despite the promise of 25 years of performance, many installed systems are failing within 10 years. Several factors are contributing to these failures. Inverters are dying, and replacements are not available. Wiring and electrical infrastructure were not designed for long lifespans, and there is widespread poor installation quality due to the use of barely trained crews during the initial boom. He points out that in addition to all these problems, there is a lack of adequate maintenance plans and reliable contracts.
The result is that he anticipates an increased risk of electrical faults, fires, hazards, and insurance claims. He said in a recent social media post that addressing this issue through repowering, remediation, or decommissioning is proving to be more complex and expensive than initially expected. According to him, the next challenge for the solar industry is not just installing new capacity, but also addressing the failures of the existing systems, in other words, a need to clean up the mess.
That is the US. Let us turn our attention to South Africa. During the last bout of loadshedding, social media lit up with households and businesses bemoaning the fact that their systems did not fire up as expected. It is not unusual to hear people complain that their systems are, simply put, dead. This may or may not be the result of suboptimal components, though it most likely is, but it is also the result of customers having installations set up and then shaking hands and waving the installer goodbye. That is it; on their own.
What is really needed is an energy partner, an on-the-ground presence to provide the type of technical support, complete with proper warranties, to mitigate against things going wrong. Beyond this, responsible people in the industry need to educate end users on how to maintain their battery performance to prevent degraded capacity. A man in a van who brought in a container will not be incentivised to provide this type of support, complete with off-site telematics and proactive monitoring of installations.
As this likely crisis unfolds, households and businesses should seek out reputable installers who only work with the best, proven brands and battery chemistries. Installations are complex engineering feats and should never be left to unqualified people. Beyond not lasting, it can be extremely dangerous. We have the opportunity to rectify what may well be a market mess, but it requires an industry-wide commitment to best practices, and an acknowledgement that long-term, on-the-ground support is not a nice-to-have luxury; it should be an absolute essential.
For more information contact REVOV,
© Technews Publishing (Pty) Ltd. | All Rights Reserved.
printer friendly version