So, another year has come and gone. After a somewhat trying 2003, I have a few more grey hairs than I would like, but like the year that has gone, they remind me of the good years gone by, and the promise of years to come.
That said, what stands out for me in the year that was 2003?
The world is no longer your oyster
Well first and foremost I would have to say that it was a year in which the world became a less safe place in which to live. The uncertainty in the Middle East, the lack of astute political leadership from the US, and the continued folly of a 'War on Terrorism' has led to a polarisation of views across the political and cultural divide. Recent terror attacks on British interests in Turkey highlight the extent to which the tentacles of terror are spreading, and it is an unfortunate consequence of our times that we can expect to see more of this in the years to come. South Africa, whilst not immune to violent acts of crime or terror, suddenly feels like a safe haven from the uncertainty in many other parts of the world.
The rand
It was a year in which the rand continued to defy expectations, its bull run crashing through barrier after barrier. Not two years ago, when we compiled our SA Security Industry Survey, we lamented the plummeting rand, painting it as a constraint on the growth of the security industry in South Africa. Its current strength, whilst problematic for exporters and government, is a massive boon to consumers, importers and distributors of products, and of course aids the economy at large, as dollar denominated imports such as crude oil cost less and the benefits of this reduction ripple through the economy.
Our individual wealth has improved, interest rates have come down rapidly and general business confidence is on the up. I am a rand strength advocate, or at least an advocate of a stable rand (with a tendency to strength rather than weakness). As much of the security industry's solutions are imported, security budgets are going further now than ever before, as prices plummet in dollar terms, and even more so in rand terms. It may well be tougher for local manufacturers who have a high local content in their products, but even still, to some degree there is an imported dollar denominated component to even these locally developed solutions.
Where the strengthening rand may hit security service providers is in areas which are themselves highly dependent on export income, such as the mines, which may well have constraints placed on their ability to increase spending on security solutions, or indeed on any infrastructural upgrades.
IT influence continues unabated
Yes, I know this sounds like a stuck record, but the influence of IT on security solutions continues unabated. In fact, it is accelerating! Just this week I was at the launch of Cingulum Security Services. According to Cingulum founder and CEO, Dave Albert, "Cingulum is the first South African IT-based security company with the ability to provide first class international security standards appropriate to the remote site monitoring of CCTV cameras and related security solutions."
Whilst the jury is out on whether Albert and his team can deliver on the promise, it is a fascinating, indeed watershed, event to observe, as Cingulum has partnered with Internet Solutions and Dimension Data to provide the infrastructure for remote CCTV monitoring. Essentially, this is the first business in South Africa, using an established IP infrastructure (arguably the most sophisticated on the continent), which has focused on the network-based imaging trends we are all so aware of. The remote monitoring concept is not new, just the technology infrastructure on which it is based is. Will it succeed? Well that depends on whether it is a solution looking for a problem, or whether there is a real need out there waiting to be serviced.
But the bottom line is the network has arrived. IP is king. And CCTV will never quite be the same again. I think. (Smile).
On that note. All the very best for the coming holiday season. May you have a relaxing break, and I look forward to bringing you more of what makes this fascinating industry tick, in 2004.
Till then,
Darren Smith
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