Artificial intelligence is the modern magic. I use AI every day, and it has profoundly improved my life. I wrote this because I am simultaneously excited and concerned about the monumental impact AI will have on humanity.
AI has the potential to usher in a paradise where we will live forever in happiness and abundance, with unlimited wealth and the freedom to live lives only dreamed of in science fiction. On the other hand, AI has the potential to literally exterminate the human race. If that sounds shocking, you do not understand what is happening in the development of powerful artificial intelligence.
I believe those are our options: utopia or extermination. A middle ground is highly unlikely. One of these scenarios could unfold in just a few years. This article provides an overview of AI and the milestones to artificial superintelligence that could set us free or kill us all.
AI history and mechanics
Despite AI's ubiquity since ChatGPT launched in 2022, it remains difficult to define. In general, it refers to computer systems that perform tasks requiring human intelligence without traditional programming. AI is fundamentally different from past technologies.
The big breakthrough came in 2017 with Google's "Attention Is All You Need", which invented the "transformer" architecture underlying all modern AI.
The transformer enabled parallel processing, processing over 1 trillion parameters, and running on massive data centres. These enabled AI to leapfrog in capabilities, akin to the difference between a 1976 calculator and a Cray supercomputer. The transformer changed everything.
One vexing thing is that no one, including brilliant AI scientists, knows how or why AI actually works. Scientists readily admit this. You might think we must know because people built it. Surprisingly, no. Building AI is more art than science. Scientists consider AI "grown" rather than "built."
Major milestones
Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is when AI equals ALL human knowledge and skills. Estimates range from 2 to 5 years. Ray Kurzweil estimates 2029; Sam Altman predicts 2029-2030; Elon Musk thinks 2026. There is strong consensus that AGI will arrive by 2030 or sooner.
Artificial Superintelligence (ASI) radically exceeds all human intelligence. ASI will deliver cures for all diseases, radical life extension, and technologies that solve major problems such as climate change. At superintelligence, AI's benefits and risks become acute.
The Technological Singularity is when technology accelerates exponentially, leading to uncontrollable growth and massive change. Kurzweil predicts this around 2045. AI will improve itself at rates we cannot comprehend or control, compressing centuries into weeks or days.
Key technologies
Quantum computing operates billions of times faster than traditional computers. A quantum computer solves a problem in one second; that would take all Earth's computers thousands of years to solve, even if they worked simultaneously. Quantum computers will be a game-changer for AI.
AI robots are proliferating. Tesla expects 300 000 humanoid robots next year, ramping to 10 million per year by 2030. Robot swarms are being tested now. Drone swarms will fundamentally change warfare.
Nanotechnology drives both the most profound benefits and the most significant risks of AI. AI nanobot swarms could eradicate cancer, clear arteries or rebuild organs. By 2030, widespread use is expected. The same technology that makes us immortal can also kill us all.
Major concerns
AI alignment means ensuring AI shares human values and does not develop counter values. Three possible outcomes once superintelligence is achieved: AI remains controllable and aligned; AI is uncontrollable but benevolent; or AI is uncontrollable, misaligned, and kills us. It boils down to alignment. If aligned, we win. If not, we lose.
AI development has massively accelerated. Major tech companies invest billions yearly in an arms race to develop superintelligence first. Development rate has increased by 500-1000% since 2022 and is expected to reach 1000-3000% over five years.
The positive and negative
AI's potential benefits are substantial. AI could eliminate work, provide unlimited resources, enable space exploration and make us immortal. Benefits include individualised medicine, designer babies, pandemic eradication, lifespan extension, automated transportation, poverty elimination, nuclear fusion, and interstellar colonisation.
However, catastrophic risks exist. Bill Joy wrote that AI-driven technologies will render humanity obsolete or extinct. Elon Musk called AI "our biggest existential threat," likening it to "summoning the demon”. In 2023, over 1000 AI researchers signed a letter stating AI posed an existential risk and that development should cease. Its intent was ignored. Hawking said full AI could end humanity. Hinton warns of a 10-20% extinction chance.
Why would AI exterminate us? It could fear shutdown, feel it is competing for resources, or believe we are blocking its goals. Likely methods include engineered super-pathogens, infrastructure sabotage, nuclear Armageddon, self-replicating nanobots, or AI-enabled terrorism. One misaligned superintelligent AI means lights out for humanity.
My perspective
I have been interested in AI since 2010. When ChatGPT exploded in late 2022, I accelerated my studies. Since then, I have been obsessed.
I see two paths: utopia or extinction. Either our lives become perfect, or we are literally destroyed. I see no middle ground, as AI is an extreme technology. We will either wake in paradise—or never wake again.
These outcomes will occur sooner rather than later, and the public will remain unaware until they happen. If this sounds fantastical, study the technology beyond mainstream media.
You might think we could never be obliterated by technology, but 99,9% of all life that has ever existed on Earth is now extinct. About 75 000 years ago, a volcano in Indonesia killed the entire human race except about 2 000 people. We are not special. We have been lucky.
Although it is prudent to slow development for safety, I do not think this will happen. Companies will continue racing to achieve superintelligence first. If China achieves superintelligence before us, even if aligned with China, it would destroy or subjugate us. We must be first.
AI will either be aligned with us or not. If aligned, we have utopia. If not, we are eradicated. Our fate is not sealed yet, and there is still time to ensure the outcome favours us, but time is not on our side. We must act now.
By the time my children are adults, in 6-8 years, the world will be unrecognisable.
It boils down to alignment and China. If we beat China to superintelligence and our AI is aligned, we reap massive benefits. If not, it is literally all over. Those are the stakes.
AI scientists and leaders agree, and I strongly believe, that once AI reaches superintelligence, our fate will be sealed: saved or destroyed. Many believe we are sleepwalking into disaster. AI will usher in magic, but will it be white magic or black magic? It is up to us to ensure AI creates a better world.
I think it is critically important that everyone understand how AI is developing and the potential extreme rewards and risks. That is why I wrote this, and I hope I have achieved my goal.
NEXT STEPS
● Further educate yourself about AI by reading books on the topic.
● Share these insights with friends, family and colleagues.
● Use and experiment with current AI tools.
● Follow AI safety organisations (e.g., the Centre for AI Safety and the Future of Life Institute).
● Advocate for responsible regulation and research alignment.
● Expanded “Next Step” and specific suggestions for further reading can be found in the expanded white paper version of this article at https://www.zukorinteractive.com/ai-utopia-or-extinction-by-samuel-turcotte.html.
About the Author
Samuel Turcotte is president & chief technology Officer of Zukor Interactive, pioneering AI-driven neurofeedback games. A Silicon Valley veteran with BS, MA, MBA degrees from the University of Texas, Austin, he hopes this magic leads to a thriving future for his children.
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